Jared Crozier: Senators silenced by Bobrovsky

ottawa needs to tank to get atleast 2nd overall and draft Zadina....they NEED a 2nd top 2 LW as they only have Hoffman as a natural LW right now....

I held my breath when I saw that Hoffman shot go up high, thankfully it wasn’t serious and Dzingel turned his head or that would have smoked him in the chops.

It seems almost certain that Vancouver, Buffalo and Arizona will finish lower than Ottawa. We`re going to need a lottery win to pick in the top 3.

ottawa needs to tank to get atleast 2nd overall and draft Zadina....they NEED a 2nd top 2 LW as they only have Hoffman as a natural LW right now....
- Athrin

Tkachuk can play LW and C, I think whoever can't take him 2nd will regret it.

Does Ottawa give the Avs this year's pick or next year's considering if Karlsson is moved and they go into a rebuild on the fly they could potentially finish even lower than this year.

Does Ottawa give the Avs this year's pick or next year's considering if Karlsson is moved and they go into a rebuild on the fly they could potentially finish even lower than this year.
- 13sundin13

The million dollar question.

Does Ottawa give the Avs this year's pick or next year's considering if Karlsson is moved and they go into a rebuild on the fly they could potentially finish even lower than this year.
- 13sundin13

No need to decide until the draft.....will 100% depend on where they're picking, and if they've moved karlsson at that point.

Moving Ottawa Senators (the brand and team aside) I hate this F***ing team. They have no leadership in the office and no direction. DET & VAN have no passed them in the draft order and their going to need a lottery win (as mentioned above)

IF that doesn't happen and they draft out the top 5, their F**ked and it pisses me off more people aren't talking about it or upset about it - although people are now starting to

Moving Ottawa Senators (the brand and team aside) I hate this F***ing team. They have no leadership in the office and no direction. DET & VAN have no passed them in the draft order and their going to need a lottery win (as mentioned above)

IF that doesn't happen and they draft out the top 5, their F**ked and it pisses me off more people aren't talking about it or upset about it - although people are now starting to
- AlfieisKing

Then cheer for another team.

Edmonton has been picking in the top 3 for a decade, it has worked really well for them.

No need to decide until the draft.....will 100% depend on where they're picking, and if they've moved karlsson at that point.
- sensarmy_11

Yeah that's true, what if they're at around 8th and Karlsson is moved?

Yeah that's true, what if they're at around 8th and Karlsson is moved?
- 13sundin13

Depends on the return for karlsson IMO

If it's 8th, i'd say give it to the Avs... like it was previously said, no point wondering until we find out the lottery results... maybe we go closer to #1 but could also go down...

Then cheer for another team.

Edmonton has been picking in the top 3 for a decade, it has worked really well for them.
- sensarmy_11

why always the oilers or sabres? why never the hawks or pens?

why always the oilers or sabres? why never the hawks or pens?
- systemtool

I don't use the pens because they weren't bad for that long......plus, when you add generational talents in back to back years and have them playing alongside Mario lemieux it's a little unfair

Chicago is a good example, maybe the ONLY recent example, of a team who did it right.

The leafs are on their way but still lots of holes to fill on that D before they can be considered a contender.......plus they'll need to successfully navigate the salary cap minefield they'll be entering soon.

Assuming the deal is just doing some tweaks (if it's a rebuild then basically everyone is gone and we have nothing to talk about)

Who would you all consider trade-able players and who are main stays?

For me the trade-ables or dumps are....
Burrows
Gaborik
Pyatt
Smith
Ceci

A few others could be put in there but those would be the guys I want to see gone next year and hopefully replaced with something better.

Yes I know some of them have negative value. But to me we have some young talented guys who can fill their current roles better and would make an immediate impact on this team.

I don't use the pens because they weren't bad for that long......plus, when you add generational talents in back to back years and have them playing alongside Mario lemieux it's a little unfair
- sensarmy_11

Having the #2 pick in 2004 and the #1 pick in 2005 became Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby... offset that by one year to having the #2 pick in 2005 and the #1 pick in 2006 and you get Bobby Ryan and Erik Johnson. Factor in that along the way the Penguins won a full league-wide draft lottery to get Crosby, and you can safely attribute a substantial portion of the Penguins' Cup success to draft luck.

Conversely, a team like Florida had 4 top-3 picks in a span of 5 years (2010-2014) and wound up with Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad... narrowly missing out on the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Taylor Hall, and Tyler Seguin. This isn't to say that players like Huberdeau and Barkov aren't very good, but they've hardly made Florida into any kind of a sure-fire Cup contender. In that exact same stretch of years, the Islanders had 4 top-5 picks, and wound up with Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Strome, Griffin Reinhart, and Michael Dal Colle.

The point is, people need to calm down about the supposed magical properties of a top-5 draft pick in any given year... especially for a draft with relatively decent depth even in the 8/9 spot.

Having the #2 pick in 2004 and the #1 pick in 2005 became Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby... offset that by one year to having the #2 pick in 2005 and the #1 pick in 2006 and you get Bobby Ryan and Erik Johnson. Factor in that along the way the Penguins won a full league-wide draft lottery to get Crosby, and you can safely attribute a substantial portion of the Penguins' Cup success to draft luck.

Conversely, a team like Florida had 4 top-3 picks in a span of 5 years (2010-2014) and wound up with Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad... narrowly missing out on the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Taylor Hall, and Tyler Seguin. This isn't to say that players like Huberdeau and Barkov aren't very good, but they've hardly made Florida into any kind of a sure-fire Cup contender. In that exact same stretch of years, the Islanders had 4 top-5 picks, and wound up with Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Strome, Griffin Reinhart, and Michael Dal Colle.

The point is, people need to calm down about the supposed magical properties of a top-5 draft pick in any given year... especially for a draft with relatively decent depth even in the 8/9 spot.
- khawk

Personally, I've never thought the draft was a guarentee'd superstar. I do think a generational talent like Ovi, Mcdavid, etc they are worth tanking for.

As for Ottawa, I think tanking now is a great idea to try and go for Dahlin.

Then cheer for another team.

Edmonton has been picking in the top 3 for a decade, it has worked really well for them.
- sensarmy_11

As someone else mentioned, the blackhaws + pens

First of all Arizona has no $
Buffalo and Edmonton are wrecks but I guarantee you both teams will figure it out. With both these teams they lack the depth and quality pieces along side those star players.

With the Sens it's the opposite.

I'm gladly have Zack Smith, JG Pageau, Pyatt, Boro, and others on my team that can play solid mins and bring character.

Guys like Hoffman, Duchene, and Stone are SOLID #2 guys on cup contender. Meaning if there's a Tavares, Crosby, or even a Bergeron - these guys can support them very well and provide secondary scoring.

But none of the players in this organization outside Karlsson are franchise players. Then you ask who is a top 3? Mark Stone can be that. Duchene too; but again, only if you had a really strong #1. And that comes at the top of of the draft! There's no looking for a home run - get those horses or this team will stuck in meritocracy and sorry but fans like you will say crap like "look at EDM or ARI".... well they haven't drafted and developed like Ottawa either beyond round 1

Personally, I've never thought the draft was a guarentee'd superstar. I do think a generational talent like Ovi, Mcdavid, etc they are worth tanking for.
As for Ottawa, I think tanking now is a great idea to try and go for Dahlin.
- Maverick1818

And yet generational players like Crosby and McDavid didn't actually go to teams that tanked the worst. There's also a massive difference between being guaranteed the #1 spot for tanking (as was once the case), versus being guaranteed nothing more than a ~18% chance of winning the draft lottery.

Case in point, the Devils won the draft lottery last year from the #5 spot, and the Flyers drafted 2nd overall after a 88pts season. Statistically it's far more likely to have that kind of outcome again this year, regardless of how badly one or two teams happen to tank.

I don't use the pens because they weren't bad for that long......plus, when you add generational talents in back to back years and have them playing alongside Mario lemieux it's a little unfair

Chicago is a good example, maybe the ONLY recent example, of a team who did it right.

The leafs are on their way but still lots of holes to fill on that D before they can be considered a contender.......plus they'll need to successfully navigate the salary cap minefield they'll be entering soon.
- sensarmy_11

More importantly, Pitt didn't get Crosby by tanking, at least not directly. They had a 6% chance of winning Crosby, which was slightly better than most other teams (i.e., 2-4% better). based on terrible results the previous few years. Would they have finished bottom 5 in 2005 and won the draft lottery? Maybe. But they didn't. And I'm not sure the "Pittsburgh model" succeeds without Crosby.

The Pittsburgh/Chicago 'model' also works better with only the no. 1 spot in play. In those days, the lowest points total had a better than 50% chance of picking first. Nowadays, the odds are 18% of picking first, and better than 50% chance of picking 4th.

The outright tanking strategy is dead. Even if there's a generational talent on the board at number 1, finishing last doesn't give you even a 1 in 5 chance of winning. You could very easily strip your roster of talent and tank 5 straight years without winning a single lottery.

And yet generational players like Crosby and McDavid didn't actually go to teams that tanked the worst. There's also a massive difference between being guaranteed the #1 spot for tanking (as was once the case), versus being guaranteed nothing more than a ~18% chance of winning the draft lottery.

Case in point, the Devils won the draft lottery last year from the #5 spot, and the Flyers drafted 2nd overall after a 88pts season. Statistically it's far more likely to have that kind of outcome again this year, regardless of how badly one or two teams happen to tank.
- khawk

I guess I'm late to the party

More importantly, Pitt didn't get Crosby by tanking, at least not directly. They had a 6% chance of winning Crosby, which was slightly better than most other teams (i.e., 2-4% better). based on terrible results the previous few years. Would they have finished bottom 5 in 2005 and won the draft lottery? Maybe. But they didn't. And I'm not sure the "Pittsburgh model" succeeds without Crosby.

The Pittsburgh/Chicago 'model' also works better with only the no. 1 spot in play. In those days, the lowest points total had a better than 50% chance of picking first. Nowadays, the odds are 18% of picking first, and better than 50% chance of picking 4th.

The outright tanking strategy is dead. Even if there's a generational talent on the board at number 1, finishing last doesn't give you even a 1 in 5 chance of winning. You could very easily strip your roster of talent and tank 5 straight years without winning a single lottery.
- Mr_Clean

I hear what your saying but here are the 1st round picks after Karlsson was selected in 2008:

Jared Cowen, Mika Zibanejad, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Logan Brown.

Outside Chabot, none of those guys are top 5 level type talent in my books. We'll see about Brown, but we still, I've fed up with not getting a top 5 pick and still expecting to have a chance to contend in the playoffs

More importantly, Pitt didn't get Crosby by tanking, at least not directly. They had a 6% chance of winning Crosby, which was slightly better than most other teams (i.e., 2-4% better). based on terrible results the previous few years. Would they have finished bottom 5 in 2005 and won the draft lottery? Maybe. But they didn't. And I'm not sure the "Pittsburgh model" succeeds without Crosby.

The Pittsburgh/Chicago 'model' also works better with only the no. 1 spot in play. In those days, the lowest points total had a better than 50% chance of picking first. Nowadays, the odds are 18% of picking first, and better than 50% chance of picking 4th.

The outright tanking strategy is dead. Even if there's a generational talent on the board at number 1, finishing last doesn't give you even a 1 in 5 chance of winning. You could very easily strip your roster of talent and tank 5 straight years without winning a single lottery.
- Mr_Clean

Neither team tanked on purpose but they were just bad.

Only time I've seen tanking on purpose work was Toronto to get Matthews.

I've never liked the mindset of tanking because it's a losing mentality. However, this year we are in the bottom anyways, might as well tank for a better chance at Dahlin and regroup for next year.